Google Trends Europe

The last couple days, Europe has been trying to claw its way back into the news cycle, but generally doesn't seem to have the same effect on the US stock market that it did in times past.  As a proxy for American interest in Europe, below is the google trends analysis for searches for Europe since 2004.  Search volume has steadily declined over that time period, and news reference volume has declined in 2012 after being relatively elevated since 2008.

Mega Millions Number Frequency

Tonight's Mega Millions Lottery is for over $600m, meaning that each ticket has an after tax expected value of almost $2 (assuming no splits).  To aid you in finding the best numbers to play tonight, below is a chart of the frequency of each number.  The red bars represent the frequency in all drawings, the black squares are the frequency in the last 50 drawings.  Good Luck!

Personal Saving Rate

If you're in the camp that one of the major structural problems facing the US economy is that the personal savings rate is too low, then February's personal income data out this morning shouldn't make you feel too  optimistic.  Just as the stock market is making new highs not seen since 2008, the savings rate is making new lows not seen since a similar time.

Long Term Capacity Utilization Chart

Given that real GDP has moved beyond its pre-recession high, one might expect that capacity utilization would be narrowing and at least above its own pre-recession mark.  However, capacity utilization as reported in February is still only 78.7.  Optimists might look at this as a sign that there is still room to improve; pessimists might point to this as being a sign that the economy isn't nearly as strong as sentiment would imply.

S&P 200 vs 50 Day Moving Average

Consistent with the laws of mathematics, the 50 day moving average of the S&P 500 is currently above the 200 day moving average.  In an attempt to use the divergence of the 50 and 200 dmas as a proxy for how overbought/oversold the index is, below is a chart of the difference between the 50 and 200 dmas since 2008.  At the current level, the 50 day is about 100 points above the 200 day.  In the last two peaks, this metric got into the 125 area.  

Year over Year Change in Monetary Base

Gold's advance has slowed in 2012 compared to recent years, and the metal hasn't traded very well since September of 2011.  Still, this morning CNBC is running results from a poll showing that retail investors love the metal.  While many professionals will tend to take such a poll as a contrarian indicator, something fundamental may be beginning to change for gold as well.  A major driver of gold's advance has been the increase in the monetary base because of QE.  If a QE3 doesn't take place then this increase will continue to slow.  The increase in the base has already slowed considerably in recent months, as shown below.  Of course, gold was strong 2002-2003 despite moderate base money growth, so just because this growth slows doesn't necessarily mean the end for gold.

For The Price of The Dodgers...

A group led by Magic Johnson bought the Dodgers yesterday for $2.15B, the highest amount ever paid for a sports franchise.  Below is a list of other assets that could have been bought for $2.15B.  The Dodgers do about 10% of the revenue of these publicly traded companies.  In addition, the Dodgers revenue has fallen each of the last two years from $282m in 2009.