Currently at intrade.com, the odds of Obama being reelected president are 50.4%--basically a coin flip. The election is still a year away though and a lot can happen between now and November of 2012. Historically, the odds of re-election are quite a bit higher than 50%. Out of 43 previous presidents, only 10 have not been re-elected. This implies that the average president has a 76% chance of being re-elected.
One Term Presidents:
1. George
H.W. Bush
2. Jimmy
Carter
3. Gerald
Ford
4.
Herbert Hoover
5.
William Howard Taft
6.
Benjamin Harrison
7. Grover
Cleveland (served two non-consecutive terms)
8. Martin
Van Buren
9. John
Quincy Adams
10. John
Adams
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