How Long Will It Be Until XLF Makes a New All Time High?

XLV may be making new all time highs, but its cousin, XLF is far from the point where it could make new highs of its own.  Thanks to the heavy dilution that the financial sector incurred during the financial crisis, the companies that make up the XLF were among the few large companies that sustained permanent losses of capital since 2008.  XLF made an all time high of $38.15 in 2007, but today sells for just $14.76.  

Given the extreme destruction of capital it will be a long time before the financial sector makes back its losses per share, but eventually it should get there.  XLF had a book value of $15.07 as of the end of 2011.  If the ETF trades in line with book value and grows book value per share by 8% per year, XLF will reach a new peak around 12 years from today, 2024.

XLV Making New All Time Highs

Even though the S&P 500 is still down >10% from where it was in 2007, the healthcare sector SPDR has been making new all time highs over the last few days.  XLV is the 4th of 9 sector ETFs to reach above its 07/08 highs.  Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials (of course) and (surprisingly) Utilities are all still below their former peaks.