Number of Treasury Secretaries by President

It's expected that Obama will announce tomorrow that Jack Lew will be replacing Tim Geithner as Treasury secretary.  Starting with Alexander Hamilton, there have been 43 presidents but 75 Treasury secretaries.  Lew will be the 76th.

Below is a chart of the number of Treasury secretaries by presidency.  Two term presidents are highlighted.  Surprisingly, there have only been 13 presidents to serve two full terms.  On average each of those presidents has had 2.5 men serve as the head of Treasury (there has never been a woman serve), so there's a decent chance there will be at least one more before Obama's done.

FDR, who served longer than any other president, including for the bulk of the depression, only had two men helm Treasury.  Meanwhile two of the four presidents who had four Treasury secretaries weren't even full one term presidents.  Tyler and Arthur both took over from men who died in office.

TLT Nearing S&P 500 Drawdown

Are bonds always less risky than equities?  If TLT's recent move teaches investors anything the answer should be an emphatic no.  Earlier this year the S&P 500 saw a drawdown (top to bottom loss) of ~10%.  Over the last month TLT, an ETF matching the return of long term US treasuries, has lost nearly the same amount as interest rates have risen.  The moral of the story:  holding duration on the long end of the curve can create equity like returns and equity like volatility.

2s 10s spread

The Fed is set to speak again today and chatter of new stimulus has been picking up in recent weeks.  While it's been over a year since our last round of pure QE ended, we have been living in an operation twist world since last September, and can expect to continue to live in one through the end of the year at least.

While the effectiveness of twist on the economy is debatable, it's clear that the program has had a real effect on the steepness of the yield curve.  After reaching an all time steep level mid last year, the spread of the 10 yr vs. the 2 yr has been collapsing since.  In a typical economic cycle, recession would be about a year out now, and typically that would be accompanied by an inverted yield curve.  

Currently we are about one year into a flattening curve and if the pace continues we could be inverted by this time next year.  The question is, if 2 yrs are anchored at 0.25%, does that mean that the 10 yr could get that low?