Below is a chart of ISM stripped down to only include times that the indicator has been below 50 for at least 3 months in a row. There have been roughly 17 periods in which ISM has had a 3 month sub-50 streak. Of those 17 times, 6 have been outside of a recession: 1951, 1967, 1985, 1995, 1998 and 2003.
