Wednesday, September 21, 2011

30 Year Seasonality

Despite the announcement of operation twist today, if recent seasonality holds, rates may be more likely to move higher rather than lower in the coming months.  In '09 and '10 rates moved in almost the exact same pattern that they have moved so far in '11.  Rates rose into the spring, peaking around April/May before falling hard through the summer.  The bond rallies ended in both years right around the beginning of October.  Will 2011 make it three years in a row?

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