Friday, November 2, 2012

S&P 500 November Return in an Election Year

After today, there are just two trading days until a presidential winner is decided (hopefully).  The last time that an election felt as close as this one was in 2000 when Bush and Gore went head to head resulting in recounts, hanging chads and almost a month of uncertainty.

Although it's a long shot that we have a repeat of 2000 next Tuesday, there are plausible (although also low probability) scenarios in which an electoral college tie could happen.  Especially given that the fiscal cliff is breathing down congress' neck, let's hope for everyone's sake that it doesn't happen.  As a reminder though, below is what happened to the S&P for the month between the election and Gore's concession.  Funny how the S&P 500 is basically starting at the exact same spot as it's at today.

Bush v. Gore was obviously a rare occurrence not expected to repeat, so below is a list of how the S&P 500 did in November in other election years since 1952.  On average the S&P 500 is up in an election year in November, and slightly more when a one term President is ousted than when re-elected.

Note: Counted LBJ as one term President

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