Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Comparing ADP and Payrolls

ADP data will be released tomorrow morning, and Nonfarm-Payrolls data will be released on Friday.  Typically ADP gives a good sense of what the payrolls data will show, but it's not always perfect.  Below is a comparison of the two measures since 2008.  Since the beginning of '08 ADP has exceeded the employment number reported by the BLS by an average of 20k per month.  As a result of the difference, ADP counts 850k fewer jobs lost since January '08--5.95m jobs compared to 6.8m.

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