Wednesday, August 10, 2011

If Europe is falling apart, the Euro hasn't moved much

Recently  the talking heads seem to be fixated on the idea that Eurozone sovereign debt troubles are the culprit driving US equity markets lower.  While there's no question that this is at least part of the issue, it's interesting that the Euro really hasn't moved that much.  In 2010, the first time there was a real Eurozone scare, the Euro moved significantly. From December 2009 until June 2010 the Euro moved from 1.50 to 1.19.  In contrast, this year the Euro has maintained a very tight range against the dollar as equities have tumbled in August.  Are currency markets indicating that this is at least as much about the US as it is about Europe?

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