Thursday, September 27, 2012
Jobless Claims, the VIX and High Yield Spreads
Initial jobless claims were reported today and fell back towards their lowest levels for this cycle at 359k. The chart looks similar to two other important financial charts: the VIX and High Yield credit spreads. All three charts show a similar spike in the recession and have gradually declined since (with some bumps along the way). Now all three are settling at low levels, but slightly higher than their lowest points reached in 2006/2007. If the S&P 500 is going to extend its rally from here, it would seem dependent on each of these indicators breaking through to lower levels. Can we get there?
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