Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Total Systemic Debt Measured in Gold

The underlying justification for perpetual QE is that the Fed is trying to inflate away America's sizable debt load by debasing the value of the currency.  While there still has been no nominal deleveraging since 2008, if one measures our debts in terms of Gold, the US owes much less in "real" terms than it did at the turn of the century thanks to dollar debasement.  Whereas total US debt amounted to 70 Billion oz. of Gold in 2000, today it stands at 22 Billion oz. which is a level last seen in 1988.

Of course, nominal GDP measured in ounces of gold would have fallen by a similar amount, hence the Debt to GDP ratio of the US has been unaffected by inflation.  However, this chart should give some indication as to where we are in fighting debt driven deflation with engineered inflation and deeply negative real interest rates.  The chart below may suggest that the threat of deflation is almost over.

Gold Deleveraging Inflation

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