Thursday, September 27, 2012

Long Term Durable Goods Orders Chart

Durable goods orders posted a terrible print this morning for August.  The Series showed a 13% m/m decline.  Much of this came from the transports component, which is notoriously volatile.  Still, the magnitude of the drop is certainly noteworthy.

The 13% decline is the 3rd largest drop in the history of the series which goes back to 1992.  There hasn't ever been this large of a decline outside of a recession.

Before we declare the end of this expansion though, it is most likely that this is an anomaly rather than an indication of the state of the economy.  To some extent this datapoint was already reflected in the sub-50 ISM reading that was reported at the beginning of September.  For a more salient indicator, all eyes should be on how ISM measures this coming monday.

Durable Goods Orders Long Term

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